As the war between Ukraine and Russia enters its third year, the footsteps of a challenging winter are starting to be heard. Ukrainians, whose electrical infrastructure is shattered, may have to live without light or heat for hours every day. Meanwhile, the mood in Washington and some Western capitals is beginning to change. The approaching harsh winter in the war zone, coupled with the dwindling Western support for Ukraine, is becoming even more perilous. Some Western capitals are moving away from the desire for “total victory” towards the option of negotiations, leaving Ukraine’s war goals facing a compulsory alteration. Ukraine is on the verge of facing its third winter since the start of the war.

In the east, its forces are faltering against the overwhelming advances of its Russian rivals. With half of its electrical infrastructure in ruination, Ukrainians may find themselves having to live without light or heat for hours every day during the coldest months. The Russian army continues to attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Meanwhile, the mood in Washington and some Western capitals is shifting.

Ideas are shifting from a firm resolve that the war can only end with the withdrawal of the Russian army from Ukraine to a reluctant acceptance that a negotiated solution might be the best hope. Yet, even this reduced goal is not being supported for Kiev. According to the Financial Times, Ukraine’s hopes are overshadowed by the danger of Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. elections next month and wanting the war to end swiftly as promised.

Struggling with escalating tension in the Middle East, some Western capitals are altering their objectives even if they previously insisted on militarily defeating Russia. According to the Financial Times, behind closed doors, there are talks for an agreement allowing the part of the country remaining from the Russian occupation to join NATO.

Moscow currently holds effective control over approximately one-fifth of the territory it occupies in Ukraine. However, this scenario rests on bold assumptions. One of them being, the willingness of the U.S. and allies to offer NATO membership to Kiev despite their previous reluctance. If this assumption comes true, it would necessitate a large and costly deployment of forces to Ukraine by the U.S. and its partners. A second crucial point is whether Putin can be persuaded to negotiate and accept such a scenario.

Preventing Ukraine from joining NATO was one of its apparent war aims. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented a “victory plan” last month in Washington, hoping to end the war. He left empty-handed on two significant requests: progress on NATO membership and permission for Kiev to use Western missiles for long-range attacks on Russian soil. Whether the goal is to achieve a clear victory or to bring Russia to the negotiating table, Western allies need to strengthen Ukraine’s hand. If the Kremlin feels the cost of fighting is too high, it may be compelled to engage in talks for a potentially satisfying agreement for Kiev and the West.