As the presence of Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region, entered in August 2024, weakened significantly in the face of increasing intensity of Russian attacks, Kiev lost approximately half of the territories it had seized in Kursk. The gradual recapture of the region by the Russian army threatens Kiev’s sole bargaining power in the most critical phase of the war.

While Ukraine’s presence in Russia’s Kursk region weakened significantly, the Russian progress in the region is jeopardizing Kiev’s only land bargaining power in the critical moment of the war.

KIEV LOSES HALF OF KURSK Military experts from both sides say Ukraine is behind the scenes. Reports indicate that Russian forces used a gas pipeline to conduct surprise attacks in the region.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that its forces captured three more settlements. Kiev has lost approximately half of the territory it occupied in Kursk.

UKRAINIAN DOMINANCE AT ITS WEAKEST Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers warn that due to the uninterrupted assaults by Russian forces supported by North Korean troops, Kiev’s dominance in the region is weaker than ever. According to the American news outlet CNN, Russia is targeting the town of Suvca on the border in order to cut off a crucial supply route to Ukrainian forces.

RUSSIAN AND NORTH KOREAN FORCES ATTACK It is reported that Russian and North Korean forces in the Kursk region have a “significant advantage in terms of force” and are “constantly attacking”. If Russia recaptures all of Kursk, it could shift its military power to other parts of the front line.

UKRAINE’S KURSK OPERATION Ukraine made a surprise attack on Kursk in August, marking the first ground operation against Russia by a foreign force since World War II. The operation aimed to obtain gains that could be exchanged with the territories occupied by Russia and to redirect Moscow’s forces eastward from the current front line.

ATTACK SHAMING MOSCOW The Kursk attack was embarrassing for Moscow and raised questions about its ability to protect its borders. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly promised since then to regain full control of the region. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump is pressuring Kiev for negotiations by halting military aid and intelligence sharing.