President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies have rocked global markets. Stocks, cryptocurrencies, oil, natural gas, and many other financial products experienced sharp declines. Here are the answers to key questions about the tariff uncertainty that unsettled the markets…The increased risk perception following President Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies has continued to shake global equity markets. Trump’s announcement of tariffs based on reciprocity remains a source of uncertainty, and retaliatory actions in this direction are keeping the risk perception elevated. A deep selling pressure was present in global equity markets on the first day of the week, with the selling pressure originating from Asia affecting other exchanges as well. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 7.7% to 31,187 points, the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 5.6% to 2,328 points, the Shanghai Composite Index in China dropped by 7.3% to 3,096 points, and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong closed down by 13.2% at 19,828 points. European markets opened in a bearish mood parallel to Asian markets. Approximately 97% of the companies listed in the Stoxx 600 in Europe saw drops in their share prices. The loss in the DAX 40 index in Germany reached 7.1% after the opening, while the CAC 40 index in France decreased by 6.3%, the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 5.1%, and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy by 7.4%. Here are 5 questions and answers about the tariff uncertainty that caused these sales: Since President Trump’s reelection in the November 5, 2024, US Presidential elections and taking office on January 20, 2025, the US global trade strategy has changed to a more protectionist form. Parallel to Trump’s promise to reduce the trade deficit during his candidacy, investors have been preoccupied with tariff rhetoric. Following January 20, continuous tariff rhetoric has ignited risk perception in global markets. The repeated tariff rhetoric for investors became the main agenda item for markets and asset pricing. President Trump’s tariff rhetoric has raised the specter of additional price increases in products for markets. The increase in prices of products imported into the US from abroad aims to reduce demand and thus the trade deficit, while also stimulating domestic production. This price movement fundamentally affects the manufacturing and trade strategies of countries and companies. After the tariffs, many US companies that produce abroad will face additional customs duties. This situation essentially triggers a change in the future projections of all corporations and countries. Changing conditions, particularly central banks, increase uncertainties about the global economic outlook. With the reciprocity-based tariffs announced by the US administration last week, the aim is to significantly reduce the trade deficit with the trading partners of the US. The US trade deficit rose to a record level of $130.7 billion in January. According to the latest figures, the US had a trade deficit of $30.9 billion with the European Union (EU) and $26.6 billion with China in February. Last week, within the scope of the decree signed by Trump, tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on goods imported from many trading partners of the US have been implemented. Accordingly, tariffs of 20% to the European Union (EU), 34% to China, 46% to Vietnam, 32% to Taiwan, 24% to Japan, 26% to India, 25% to South Korea, 36% to Thailand, 31% to Switzerland, 32% to Indonesia, 24% to Malaysia, 49% to Cambodia, 30% to South Africa, 37% to Bangladesh, and 17% to Israel have been imposed. The successive tariff announcements by the US complicate forecasts for the global economy, while expected and actual retaliation statements from countries strengthen predictions that trade wars could escalate. Centers such as China, Vietnam, and Taiwan, which have different advantages such as cheap labor, logistics, and advanced manufacturing infrastructure, are significantly affected by the tariffs. This situation leads to a high level of risk perception in all stock markets, especially in the indexes of the relevant countries. Following the announcement of Trump’s reciprocity-based tariffs after the US markets closed on Wednesday, April 2, 2025, the selling wave that began in Asian stock markets on Thursday intensified and continued to deepen. As the markets began a new week, the selling pressure in question deepened and spread to all major indices. During this period, countries’ 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) increased, while global demand for safe-haven assets saw an increase as investors turned to them. Bond yields worldwide decreased significantly. Similar market movements were seen in August 2024 amid concerns about a global recession-induced selling pressure.
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