According to the research note titled “Blood Will Be Shed” by JPMorgan, Trump’s new tariff decision has increased the risk of a global economic downturn by 20 points. Since the “Salvation Day” on April 2, when President Donald Trump announced new customs tariff rates for many countries, it has been revealed that the risk of recession in the global US and world economy has risen from 40% to 60%. According to Business Insider, Bruce Kasman from JPMorgan, along with a series of economists, warned in a research note shared with clients that the risk of the economy entering a recession increased by 20 points in the face of Wednesday’s tariff announcement. Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all imports, with rates going up to 60% for some countries, including China, Japan, and the European Union (EU).

In the note titled “Trade Policy Less Friendly Than Expected,” JPMorgan’s top global economy expert Kashman emphasized that the US’s destructive policies are the biggest risk to the global economic outlook this year. The note stated, “Recent news shows that US trade policy has become less friendly to business than we expected.” JPMorgan economists described the tariffs as a “functional tax increase on imports at a basic level.” Prior to the new announcement, economists and supply chain experts who spoke to Business Insider warned that Trump’s tariff plan would lead to increased import costs, causing a wide range of price increases from coffee and sugar to vehicles and electronic devices.

JPMorgan analysts stated that, together with previous tariff increases, this week’s announcement raised the average tax rate in the US from approximately 22% to an estimated 24%, representing around 2.4% of the total value of all goods and services produced in the US. According to JPMorgan’s research note, this increase is on par with the highest tax increase since World War II. The note highlighted that if this trend continues, these policies could push the US and possibly the global economy into a recession this year and raised the recession risk to 60% by 2025.