A robust U.S. economy is starting to emerge from the shadow of inflation, allowing Americans to witness and experience its inherent strengths. Is this positive development arriving in time to give Vice President Kamala Harris an advantage in the upcoming election?
Typically, a thriving economy benefits political leaders in power, but surveys indicate that U.S. voters remain greatly concerned about the high cost of living. Harris has a variety of initiatives aimed at reducing the expenses of housing, food, healthcare, and other essential needs.
While this is crucial, Democrats now have a more powerful economic position with the decline in inflation and interest rates. They can highlight the growing proof that working families are reaping the rewards of the U.S. economic growth, and emphasize that Donald Trump’s haphazard economic proposals and frantic appeals endanger its progress.
According to research by my colleague Michael Mandel, wages for American working-class individuals have increased more from Election Day 2020 due to the easing of inflation. Simply put, American workers are currently in a better situation than they were under the Trump administration.
In addition to the decreased impact of inflation, Mandel attributes the rise in real wages to a resurgence in U.S. productivity growth, driven by strong investments from the government and corporations since 2020.
The International Monetary Fund has acknowledged America’s exceptional economic performance, highlighting that the U.S. is the only G-20 country with a higher GDP now than before the COVID pandemic.
Trump’s claims of creating “the greatest economy in history” before President Biden and Kamala Harris took office are debunked by the data. For the most part, the economy has fared better under the Democratic leadership than under Trump.
Economist Robert Shapiro has analyzed the figures, excluding the anomaly of the pandemic year of 2020 from his calculations. Even so, under Biden-Harris, the economy has grown at a faster rate (an average of 3.4% as opposed to 2.7%). Similar improvements are seen in job growth, private investments, and new business startups.
The notable exception remains inflation. While inflation reached 9% two years ago and has decreased to 2.4% in September, it caused significant economic difficulties along the way.
What caused its return after four decades? Most economists attribute it to disruptions in the supply chain due to the pandemic, impacting inflation in the U.S. and globally. Others point to a lack of affordable housing. Reports from the San Francisco and New York Feds have shown that the comparatively larger fiscal stimulus in America was a major driver behind the rise in U.S. prices.
Progressive economists, who advocated for substantial stimulus measures from Biden, disagree. This debate holds significance because future policymakers will learn from the pandemic recovery for the next economic downturn that requires stimulus.
The important lesson to remember is to not underestimate the political hazards of an overheated economy, as inflation significantly undermines the economic security of working families by nullifying their wage increases and reducing their purchasing power.
The potential consequences of Trump’s unrealistic economic plans would overshadow any errors made by the Biden administration.
By focusing on high tariffs, protectionism, and other harmful economic ideas, Trump risks causing considerable damage to the American economy and stability.
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