Conventional assessments of tariff expenses to the country importing goods typically concentrate on the negative effects on price, production, and employment within affected markets for certain product tariffs. Despite being mostly adverse, these economic impacts serve as a measurement tool to assess the claimed benefits of tariffs in protecting specific industries and workers.

The distinctive feature of Trump’s tariffs is the difficulty in projecting their economic consequences due to the unpredictability surrounding the tariff sizes, timing, and targeted countries. Notably, Trump has hinted at imposing varying tariffs on the same product for different countries, citing different justifications, with the discretion to adjust these tariffs and reasons at his own discretion, ushering in an era of chaotic tariffs.

Post-World War II, tariffs have been in existence, with countries agreeing in 1947 to negotiate their tariff schedules, settling on an agreement based on mutual consensus. This global trading mechanism, built on principles like non-discrimination and tariff binding, ensured parity among trading partners, preventing arbitrary tariff hikes that could impede market access and investments.

Trump’s tariff policy, characterized by unpredictability and chaos, not only magnifies regular tariff costs but adds additional expenses even without their implementation. His reciprocal tariff strategy, aimed at setting varied duties on a multitude of products from various trading partners, discards principles of non-discrimination and tariff binding, leaving foreign exporters and domestic industries grappling with uncertainty and potential retaliation.