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Referendum under the shadow of Russia: Moldova on the path to the European Union

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In Moldova, alongside the presidential election, a referendum on joining the European Union (EU) resulted in 50.31% “yes” and 49.69% “no” votes. The pro-Western incumbent President Sandu accused Russia of interfering in the elections, claiming that “criminal groups” tried to buy 300,000 votes. Russia denied interference in the elections, and the pro-Russian Shor Party rejected the allegations of wrongdoing. The Kremlin stated that the elections in Moldova were not free.

In the referendum on joining the European Union in Moldova, a razor-thin majority of 50.17% voted “yes”. President Maia Sandu announced today that the Moldovans had won the first tough battle that would determine their futures. Concurrently, in the presidential elections, President Maia Sandu received 42% of the votes, while her main rival, former prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo, received 26% of the votes.

According to unofficial data from the Central Election Commission of Moldova, the voter turnout in the country, which has over 3 million voters, including those living abroad, was 51.68%. Consequently, in the second round to be held on November 3, the pro-Western Sandu, who received the most votes, will compete for the presidency with Stoianoglo, known for his pro-Russian stance.

The definitive result from the referendum held to join the European Union puts Sandu in a weaker position for the second round, as she advocates for EU integration. Moldova started official accession negotiations back in June and aims to join by 2030 under Sandu’s leadership. Relations between Sandu and Moscow have deteriorated due to her condemning Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.

Addressing Moldovans earlier today, Sandu stated, “There is clear evidence that criminal groups collaborating with foreign powers who are hostile to our national interests tried to buy 300,000 votes.” She described this as an “unprecedented scale of fraud.” Sandu added, “Criminal groups attacked our country with millions of euros, lies, and propaganda, using the most shameful means to keep our citizens and nation in uncertainty and instability.”

Russia, while accusing Sandu’s government of “Russophobia,” denied interfering in the elections, and the pro-Russian Shor Party rejected the allegations of wrongdoing. The police accused Shor, who was sentenced in absentia to prison for his role in fraud and a $1 billion theft, of trying to pay an organized network of at least 130,000 voters to cast their votes in a certain way. It was alleged that Shor openly offered money on social media to persuade Moldovans to vote in a particular manner and claimed that the money he earned was legitimate.

Authorities shut down internet sources they said contained disinformation before the voting. They also claimed to have uncovered a program in Russia to train Moldovans for mass uprisings. Criminal cases were also launched against Shor’s allies.

According to early results from yesterday, around 57% of Moldovans initially seemed to have voted “no” in the referendum. As more ballots were counted, the “yes” votes gradually increased, surpassing the “no” votes early this morning. Political analyst Valeriu Pasha said the predominant “yes” votes were due solely to the unusually high participation of the Moldovan diaspora, which broadly supports Moldova’s EU integration. Pasha added, “In such elections where dozens (of percentage points) can be bought, our work will be very challenging moving forward. However, we should learn lessons and learn to deal with this phenomenon.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated today that the elections in Moldova were not free and indicated that the increase in votes favoring President Maia Sandu and the European Union was “difficult to explain.” The European Commission claimed in a statement today that a “unprecedented interference” by Russia was witnessed in the referendum in Moldova over the weekend to secure the path to European Union membership by a slight margin.

Peter Stano, the spokesperson for the executive body of the European Union, stated to journalists in Brussels that EU services closely monitored the referendum and presidential race in Moldova. Stano noted, “We noted that this vote took place under unprecedented intimidation and interference from Russia and its proxies aimed at destabilizing democratic processes in the Republic of Moldova and undermining its support for the European Union.” He further stated, “We have firsthand information and can say that Moldova has been under truly unprecedented intimidation and foreign interference by Russia and its proxies ahead of these two important votes.”

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