Investor expectations in the cryptocurrency market are increasingly being factored through prediction platforms. Blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket has shared the most prominent possibilities for investors in 2025. From Bitcoin price predictions to altcoin ETFs, and whether the Trump administration will create a Bitcoin reserve, many topics are being priced in line with investor expectations. While uncertainty and speculation always play a significant role in the crypto market, prediction markets are gaining more attention. Polymarket, a crypto-backed betting platform, allows investors to make investments based on expectations of future events through probabilities. Having previously made successful predictions about U.S. elections and various market movements, the platform has evaluated the possibilities that are causing a buzz in the crypto world for 2025. Let’s take a look at the most noteworthy predictions from Bitcoin price to altcoin ETFs, and whether the Trump administration will create a BTC reserve.

WHERE WILL BITCOIN REACH IN 2025?
There is significant variability in predictions about the price of Bitcoin. Investors price the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by the end of the year at 46%. However, this number decreases as more ambitious levels are considered:
27% chance of reaching $150,000
12% chance of reaching $250,000
4% chance of reaching $1 million
These probabilities have significantly changed, especially due to institutional investors pulling out of the markets and waning interest in Bitcoin ETFs. On January 20th, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 was priced at 62%. However, this rate saw a sharp decline in the later months of the year. On the other hand, investors see the drop of Bitcoin to $75,000 as the most likely scenario, with 34% of those trading on Polymarket believing this scenario will occur.

TRUMP’S PLAN TO FORM A BITCOIN RESERVE WITHIN THE FIRST 100 DAYS
Donald Trump’s frequent mention of his interest in Bitcoin during his campaign excited investors. Immediately following his election victory, Polymarket data showed a 60% probability of Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve for the U.S. within the first 100 days of his presidency. However, this probability has since dropped to 29% in recent weeks. The primary reason for this decline is the uncertainty surrounding whether Congressional approval will be required, despite the plan being officially announced. Nevertheless, by the end of the year, the likelihood of the U.S. forming a Bitcoin reserve is priced at 75%. Considered a critical move for the cryptocurrency market, the timing and scope of this decision could have a significant impact on the markets.

WILL ALTCOIN ETFs BE APPROVED IN 2025?
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 but continues to be cautious regarding altcoin ETFs. Investors are confident that a series of altcoin ETFs will receive approval in 2025. The percentages for altcoin ETFs on Polymarket are as follows:
89% likelihood of Solana (SOL) ETF approval
77% likelihood of XRP ETF approval
72% likelihood of Litecoin (LTC) ETF approval
69% likelihood of Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) ETF approvals
These rates reflect the increasing interest of investors in the altcoin market and potential developments on the regulatory side. Solana’s ETF stands out as the product most likely to be approved.

UNLIKELY PREDICTIONS THAT COULD COME TRUE
There are also unusual crypto predictions on Polymarket that investors find interesting despite their low probability. Some extraordinary crypto predictions on the platform are as follows:
20% probability of Ethereum (ETH) reaching its all-time high in 2025
12% probability of MicroStrategy declaring bankruptcy in 2025
6% probability of Amazon forming a Bitcoin reserve by June
2% probability of Solana (SOL) surpassing Ethereum (ETH) in market capitalization
7% probability of Bybit going bankrupt in 2025
Considering unpredictable events that have occurred in the cryptocurrency world in the past, it is possible for some low probability events to unexpectedly take place.

WHAT DO POLYMARKET PREDICTIONS TELL THE MARKET?
Data on Polymarket is considered an important indicator as it directly reflects investor market expectations. The issuance of Bitcoin ETFs, decreasing interest from institutional investors, and uncertainties surrounding altcoin ETFs significantly influence price predictions for 2025. On the other hand, decisions such as the U.S. government creating a Bitcoin reserve, approval of Solana ETFs, and the general direction of the market are events that investors will largely price in over the coming months. Nothing is certain in the cryptocurrency world, but the rates priced on Polymarket continue to be an important source of data for seeing the overall market expectations.