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Petroleum Prices Hit 4-Year Low

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Concerns over expanding trade wars caused petroleum prices to sharply drop. Brent crude oil fell as low as $63, marking the lowest level in 4 years. The prices tumbled on the first trading day of the week as U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated harsh statements on trade tariffs and the OPEC+ group announced plans to increase production in May. The price per barrel of Brent crude oil dropped by 3.87%, hitting $63.20, the lowest level in four years. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil found buyers at $59.67 per barrel. China, the world’s largest oil importer, retaliated against Trump’s new customs tariffs, and other major economies like the European Union announced similar retaliatory measures, reigniting concerns about global trade wars. Behind the losses in petroleum prices last week were mounting worries about a slowdown in global economic growth leading to a decrease in oil demand. TRADE WARS INTENSIFY Trump emphasized that the tariffs he implemented should be viewed as medicinal and expressed no intention to back down. He announced that new tariffs expected to take effect on April 9th would impose additional taxes of up to 54% on products imported from China, aiming to address the trade deficit with other major economies, which he emphasized would continue until this goal is achieved. China retaliated by announcing a 34% tariff on all U.S. products, criticizing Trump’s tariffs and threatening to take further actions. Experts warn that these measures could lead to economic damage on a global scale and negatively impact oil demand. GRADUAL PRODUCTION INCREASE DECISION Furthermore, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ group, which includes some non-OPEC oil-producing countries, announced their commitment to adhering to the gradual production increase decision, reinforcing concerns of oversupply amid shrinking demand, thus exerting additional pressure on prices. The OPEC+ group stated in an announcement on April 3rd that as of April 1st, they will gradually phase out the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day and will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May. REACHING $80 PER BARREL SEEMS UNLIKELY Experts point out that decisions made by Trump and the OPEC+ group are significantly suppressing oil demand. While the OPEC+ group continues to provide excess supply to the market, with global economic uncertainties created by trade wars, significant demand growth is not expected, making it difficult to anticipate a return to $80 per barrel for oil prices in the near future. Technically, it is stated that $70.49 is a resistance level and $62.28 is a support level for Brent crude oil.

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