November’s economic agenda will feature a busy flow of data. The Central Bank will announce the year’s final inflation report. Inflation, growth, and labor data will be closely monitored. Budget discussions and minimum wage announcements will also be carefully tracked. As the flow of data takes the spotlight in November’s economic agenda, economic circles will closely watch the discussions on the 2025 budget at the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) and the reports that the Central Bank will release one after the other along with its interest rate decision. One of the focal points in November will be the TBMM Planning and Budget Commission. After the presentation of the 2025 budget to the Assembly on October 17, the discussion marathon began. The Commission will conduct their general discussions on the budget tomorrow (October 30). The 2025 budget discussions of ministries and institutions in the Commission will conclude on November 29. After the discussions are completed, the budget is planned to come to the TBMM General Assembly in early December.
INFLATION REPORT AND INTEREST RATE DECISION AWAITED
Reports and decisions to be announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey will also feature as prominent headlines in November’s agenda. In this context, the inflation report for the final year will be shared with the public on November 8. TCMB Governor Fatih Karahan stated, “We predict that inflation will decrease to 38% by the end of 2024, and we have maintained the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 14% and 9%, respectively.” The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will convene on November 21 under the chairmanship of Karahan. The interest rate decision announced by the MPC and the messages it gives will be closely monitored by the markets. The Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 50% in its meeting in October. TCMB will announce the second Financial Stability Report of the year on November 29. The report will evaluate developments related to financial stability, the impact of measures taken on the financial sector. The assessment that Karahan will make in the foreword of the report will also be closely followed by economic circles.
INFLATION, GROWTH, AND LABOR DATA
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will also share inflation data for October with the public on Monday, November 4. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced to be 49.38 on an annual basis and 2.97 on a monthly basis in September. The Institution will publish the industrial production index and labor statistics for September on November 11. It is expected that TurkStat will announce the gross domestic product data for the third quarter of the year on November 29. The Turkish economy grew by 2.5% in the second quarter of the year. Thus, the Turkish economy exhibited 16 consecutive quarters of growth performance.
MINIMUM WAGE
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will announce the results of the central government budget implementation on November 15. Focus will also be on announcements regarding the minimum wage, which concerns millions of workers in November. Minister of Labor and Social Security Vedat Işıkhan stated, “We have the Minimum Wage Determination Commission to set the minimum wage that will be valid from 2025 onwards. We will start this process at the beginning of December.”