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Markets Focused on Presidential Election in the US

November 5, 20243 Mins Read

Global markets witnessed a mixed trend ahead of the presidential elections in the US today. Recent polls showing very close results and political uncertainties have made pricing difficult. The US presidential elections are closely monitored worldwide. According to the latest polls, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are neck and neck with 48.5% of the vote each. As the countdown ends for the 60th presidential election in the US today, nationwide polls indicate a close race between Harris and Trump. In the 7 swing states that will determine the fate of the elections, Trump leads by small margins in 5, while Harris leads in 2. Investors are avoiding taking risky positions ahead of the elections, and the decision on interest rates that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce on Thursday is also in focus. Following last week’s employment data in the US, market expectations for a Fed rate cut remain steady, with an anticipated 25 basis point cut this week to 4.50-4.75 range. There is an 82% chance that the Fed will implement another 25 basis point rate cut in December. Analysts expect signals from the Fed’s policy statement on Thursday and remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to influence asset prices and provide clues regarding future policies. In Asia, risk appetite is high, except in South Korea, with positive trends emerging, particularly in China. Chinese Premier Li Qiang affirmed the broad space available for fiscal and monetary policies, reiterating the country’s economic growth target of approximately 5%. Recent data indicates positive figures for China, with the Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in October surpassing expectations at 52.0, while the composite PMI remained high at 51.9 for the same period. In Australia, the Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected at 4.35%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index closed nearly 1.2% higher, while in China, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.8% and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong increased by 1.2%. The Kospi index in South Korea, however, fell by 0.5%. In domestic markets yesterday, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul closed the day down by 2.49% at 8,663.88 points. In Turkey, consumer price index (CPI) for October showed a 2.88% increase on a monthly basis, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated a 1.29% rise. Annual inflation decreased to 48.58% for consumer prices and 32.24% for producer prices. The USD/TRY exchange rate closed at 34.3445 yesterday, edging up by 0.1%, and is currently trading at 34.3540 in the interbank market. Traders will be monitoring the real effective exchange rate domestically, as well as service sector PMIs in the UK, trade balance and ISM service sector PMIs in the US. From a technical standpoint, the BIST 100 index has support levels at 8,600 and 8,520, with resistance at 8,850 and 9,000 points.

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