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Markets Focus on US Inflation Data

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Concerns over trade wars deepened sales in the markets. Investors shifted their attention to next week’s US inflation data. Global markets ended the week under selling pressure due to increased risk perception driven by concerns regarding tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump and potential retaliations from other economies. Eyes are now turned to the US inflation data to be released next week and the meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The US inflation figures for March will be announced on Wednesday, March 10. In the country, inflation will decrease from 3% in February to 2.8%. US President Donald Trump’s economic and trade policies under the “America First” policy continued to be a source of uncertainty globally. Countermeasures in this direction influenced the direction of the markets. Concerns that tariffs will put pressure on global growth and trigger inflation by reflecting increased customs duties on prices have increased selling pressure in equity markets amid high risk perception. A LOSS OF $6 TRILLION There were sharp sales in the US stock market last week. The Dow Jones index lost over 2,200 points yesterday, falling 5.5% to 38,314.86 points. The S&P 500 index fell by 5.97% to 5,074.08 points, while the Nasdaq index dropped by 5.82% to 15,587.79 points. The weekly declines in indices were 7.9% for Dow Jones, 9.1% for S&P 500, and 10% for Nasdaq. The two-day sharp drop in indices caused a loss of over $6 trillion, wiping out around $10 trillion from the US markets since Trump took office. WILL THE FED CUT RATES? Growing recession concerns in the global economy reflected in the Fed’s interest rate expectations in the US. Expectations that the Fed will adopt a more aggressive rate reduction policy to support economic growth have strengthened. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated on Friday, “High tariffs will have an impact on our economy and likely increase inflation in the coming quarters.” He said, “As new policies and their possible economic effects become clearer, we will better understand their impact on the economy and monetary policy.” Just before Powell’s speech, Trump mentioned that it would be a perfect time to lower interest rates and called on the Fed Chairman to cut rates. Expectations that the Fed will make a total of 4 interest rate cuts by the end of the year have strengthened in pricing in the money markets, with the bank expected to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points with a 75% probability in June.

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