Last week, global markets witnessed a mixed trend due to concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might slow down the pace of its easing process and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with attention now turned towards the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision. Confidence that inflationary pressures in the US have weakened has given way to a cautious stance following the release of inflation data. Concerns persist over whether the long period of high interest rates will result in a recession. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US exceeded expectations in September, rising by 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% on an annual basis. Analysts noted that changes in the Fed’s interest rate reduction pace could occur following the inflation data release, emphasizing the increasing importance of signals from macroeconomic data in the country.

In addition to this, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 5 rose to 258,000, exceeding market expectations. Consequently, the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits reached its highest level since August 2023. Analysts pointed out that Hurricane Helene and worker strikes may have partially contributed to the increase in jobless claims, also mentioning that Hurricane Milton in Florida could impact employment data in the coming weeks.

In the global markets, concerns that the Fed might slow down its easing process and the effects of ongoing tensions in the Middle East resulted in a mixed trend last week. Despite the possibility of the Fed keeping the policy rate steady next month being priced in, expectations remain strong for a cumulative 50 basis point cut in the two meetings scheduled until the end of the year. Analysts stated that signals from companies’ financial results could increase volatility in stock and sector-specific markets.

Moreover, in terms of assets, the 10-year treasury yield in the US closed the week at 4.08% with an 11 basis point increase compared to the previous week. The dollar index finished at 102.9, marking a 0.4% increase. The price per ounce of gold saw a 0.1% increase to $2,657.3 last week, while the price per barrel of Brent crude oil increased by 0.9% to $78.6.

In New York, the stock market showed a positive trend last week as expectations increased that the US economy could achieve a “soft landing.” On the corporate side, Alphabet shares depreciated by 2.40% amid news that Google, the search engine accused of monopolization, is preparing to “forcefully sell” some of its applications and services. Boeing shares fell by 2.57% after the company withdrew its 30% wage increase offer for factory workers on strike as of mid-September. The net profits of JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo declined in the third quarter compared to the same period last year, but they exceeded expectations.

Looking ahead, Tuesday will see the release of the New York Fed’s industrial index, followed by Thursday’s retail sales, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, industrial production, weekly jobless claims, and Friday’s housing starts and building permits.

Meanwhile, in Europe, stocks traded predominantly higher last week except in the UK, and recession concerns continue in the region. The ECB is expected to continue its easing process at next week’s monetary policy meeting, with close monitoring of data on inflation and economic activity. The market expects a 25 basis point rate cut at the Bank’s upcoming meeting. In Germany, the government revised its growth forecast for this year from 0.3% to -0.2%.

The ECB’s minutes from the September monetary policy meeting revealed cautiousness from the ECB Governing Council members regarding further policy easing despite their satisfaction with the progress made in the disinflation process. ECB member Bostjan