October will be a busy month for the economy. The inflation figures for September will be announced on October 3. On the same day, Central Bank President Fatih Karahan will make a presentation at the Turkish Parliament’s Planning and Budget Commission. Following the presentation of the 2025 central government budget to the Turkish Parliament in October, the budget marathon will begin in the Parliament. The economic management is expecting a busy agenda in October. Minister of Trade Ömer Bolat is scheduled to announce the foreign trade figures for September in Ankara on October 2. Last month, the highest August export in the history of the Republic was realized with 22 billion 48 million dollars. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) President Fatih Karahan will make a presentation on October 3 at the Turkish Parliament’s Planning and Budget Commission. It is anticipated that Karahan will make a comprehensive presentation on global developments, the Turkish economy, inflation, and monetary policy framework to the members of the commission. On the same day, TurkStat will announce the inflation data for September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a monthly increase of 2.47% in August, while the Domestic Producer Price Index (D-PPI) showed an increase of 1.68%. The annual inflation was calculated at 51.97% for consumer prices and 35.75% for domestic producer prices. TurkStat will announce the real yield rates of financial investment instruments for September to the public on October 8. When discounted with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), gold bullion provided the highest monthly real return in August with 4.01%. Unemployment and industrial production data will be announced on October 10. The unemployment rate in Turkey decreased by 0.4 points in July compared to the previous month, reaching 8.8%. While the industrial production index showed a monthly increase of 0.4% in July, it showed a decrease of 3.9% annually. Balance of payments data will also be shared with the public by the Central Bank on October 11. In July, Turkey had a surplus of 566 million dollars in the current account, and a surplus of 4 billion 879 million dollars in the current account excluding gold and energy. The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will announce the central government budget results for September on October 15. TurkStat will announce the tourism statistics for the third quarter at the end of October. Turkey’s tourism income increased by 11.8% in the second quarter of the year compared to the same period last year, reaching 14 billion 875 million 518 thousand dollars. Participation from the economic management is expected at TEKNOFEST to be held in Adana between October 2-6, where aviation, space, and technology enthusiasts will also attend. THE BUDGET MARATHON WILL BEGIN IN THE PARLIAMENT Preparations for the 2025 budgets of ministries and institutions are also intensively continuing. The central government budget for 2025 must be submitted to the Turkish Parliament in October. In the budget marathon, budgets of ministries and institutions will be discussed first in the Turkish Parliament’s Planning and Budget Commission, and then in the General Assembly. The Parliament’s budget work is expected to continue until the end of the year. The 2025 Presidential Annual Program is also planned to be announced in October. ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE CENTRAL BANK AND GROWTH DATA Central Bank President Karahan is expected to announce the year’s last inflation report on November 8. The messages Karahan will deliver will be closely monitored by the economy and markets. The Central Bank will also share the Financial Stability Report with the public on November 29. The Bank will evaluate developments related to financial stability and the impact of measures taken on the financial sector. It is expected that TurkStat will announce the gross domestic product data for the third quarter on November 29. The Turkish economy grew by 2.5% in the second quarter of the year. Thus, the Turkish economy had shown a growth performance for 16 consecutive quarters. Another data closely followed by the markets will be the meetings of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). At its last meeting, the Committee, with meetings planned for October 17, November 21, and December 26, kept the policy rate, which is the one-week repo auction interest rate, unchanged at 50%.
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