The attention of millions of employees is now focused on the wage increase. Expectations regarding the minimum wage are starting to take shape. Here are the initial estimates related to the minimum wage… Many employees are curious about how much the wages will increase. As the year-end approaches, expectations on the minimum wage increase are starting to form. Economists are divided on the topic of the wage increase. Some argue that the wage increase could be over 30 percent. It is also among the estimates that the rate of increase in the private sector will remain around 20 percent. It has been debated for a while whether the minimum wage increase will be based on year-end inflation or target inflation. The Central Bank had announced its inflation target for the year-end at 38 percent, with the upper band at 42 percent. Economists had expressed the view that this target could be exceeded with the inflation data for September exceeding expectations. The midpoint of the 2025 inflation target was set at 14 percent. The upper limit of the target inflation was announced as 21 percent. The first meeting of the Minimum Wage Commission is expected to take place in December. Officials and analysts from the German banking giant Deutsche Bank visited Turkey last week. Deutsche Bank’s note, published following the visits in Turkey, included impressions on wage increases. The bank stated, “The general expectation for the minimum wage is an increase of 25-30 percent by 2025.” It was emphasized that an increase over 30 percent would be challenging. It was reported that such an increase would put businesses in a difficult situation. The U.S.-based bank Wells Fargo stated in an analysis released yesterday that they expect a double-digit increase in the minimum wage. The bank also announced that they anticipate the inflation forecast for this year to be in the range of 55-60 percent. Meanwhile, the agenda of the real sector has started shifting towards the minimum wage. Şeref Fayat, the President of the TOBB Apparel and Ready-Made Clothing Industry Assembly, stated, “An increase of over 25-26 percent in the minimum wage will unfortunately lead to a much larger decrease in employment.” Speaking to BloombergHT, Fayat also agreed with the view that an increase of over 30 percent would be challenging for businesses. Fayat proposed a formula where the net part is given more to the employee from the gross wage. The Minimum Wage Determination Commission, which consists of 15 representatives, five each from workers, employers, and the government, determines the minimum wage. The commission, chaired by a member appointed by the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Services, is convened upon the call of the minister and meets four times in December based on tradition as part of the efforts to determine the new minimum wage. The commission, attended by at least 10 members, makes decisions by a majority vote. In case of equal votes, it is considered that the side with the chairman provides the majority. The minimum wage is the wage that is paid to employees for a regular workday and is sufficient to cover the employee’s mandatory needs such as food, housing, clothing, health, transportation, and culture at the minimum level based on the prices of the day. The minimum wage was first implemented in Australia and New Zealand in 1890. It was then adopted in Europe from the beginning of the 1900s. In the subsequent period, it became a standard protecting labor worldwide. In Turkey, even though the minimum wage was included in the legislation with the 1936 Labor Law, it was not implemented until 1951. Between 1951 and 1967, it was determined by local commissions. The current practice of the Minimum Wage Determination Commission was introduced after 1967. Regional minimum wage determinations were made in 1969, 1972, and 1973. From 1974 onwards, the national minimum wage for the industry and agriculture sectors was determined by the Commission. In 1989, the division between agriculture and industry was removed, and a single minimum wage was applied.