Every month, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) shares inflation figures. Last month, CPI was announced at an annual rate of 38.1%. Monthly consumer prices increased by 2.46%. As April inflation data are awaited, the Central Bank published a survey of market participants. What is the expected inflation for April, and when will the inflation rate be announced? According to the April inflation expectation survey, the CPI increase expectation rose to 3.07%. The CPI increase expectation was 28.04% in the previous survey period, but it is now set at 29.98% in this survey period. The interest rate expectation was 42.33% in the previous period, and it is now 46.00% in this period. Here is the anticipated date for inflation figures…Inflation figures are announced by TURKSTAT on the 3rd of every month. However, if this date falls on a weekend, the inflation figures are declared on the following Monday. Accordingly, inflation data will be announced on May 5th.
The market participants survey for April 2025 has been published. The CPI expectation was 28.04% in the previous survey period, and it is now 29.98% in this period. The 12-month CPI expectation was 24.55% in the previous survey period, and it is now 25.56% in this survey period. The 24-month CPI expectation was 17.06% and 17.69% in the same survey periods.
EXPECTATION FOR 12-MONTH INFLATION
In the April 2025 survey period, the 12-month forecasts suggest that CPI is likely to increase by an average of 17.12% with a probability of 20.00 – 22.99%, 23.00 – 25.99%, and 26.00 – 28.99%, respectively.
EXPECTATION FOR 24-MONTH INFLATION
According to participants’ estimates for 24 months ahead, CPI is expected to increase by an average of 12.98% with a probability of 13.00 – 15.99%, 16.00 – 18.99%, and 19.00 – 21.99%.
INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION
According to the survey, the interest rate expectation was 42.33% in the previous survey period, and it is now 46.00% in this survey period. The Central Bank’s one-week repo auction rate current month-end expectation is still 42.50% in this survey period.