President Donald Trump has suspended military aid to Ukraine, raising questions about how long the Ukrainian forces can hold on without American help. Relying on American weapons since the start of the conflict, Ukraine risks stumbling against Russia at any moment. Despite efforts from some top Ukrainian officials to fill the void with European support, they warn that the army will struggle if American assistance does not return.

Following a dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, President Donald Trump reportedly temporarily suspended military aid to Ukraine. In addition to halting military assistance, the Trump administration also ceased intelligence sharing with Ukraine. There are concerns that Ukraine’s access to the Starlink satellite internet system, owned by Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, may also be at risk.

UKRAINE’S STUMBLING A MATTER OF MOMENTS Without the billions of dollars worth of American-made weapons, Ukraine’s forces could stumble against Russia in mere moments. However, the duration of this collapse depends on how quickly European countries can recover the artillery, missile, and air defense systems suspended by the Trump administration.

US PROMISED $11 BILLION IN WEAPONS The US pledged to deliver up to $11 billion in weapons and equipment to Ukraine this year. According to a new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, some of these supplies were sourced from Pentagon stocks, while others were ordered through new defense contracts. The unwavering support from Europe to Ukraine has intensified since the Trump administration began withdrawing, though rapidly filling the weapons gap remains nearly impossible.

“EUROPE CANNOT REPLACE AMERICAN AID”

While European defense industries have accelerated efforts to quickly send weapons to Ukraine, the countries must also ensure to retain their own weapon stockpiles. Former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine, Major General Ihor Romanenko stated that “Europe cannot completely replace American aid.”

“ARMY WILL COLLAPSE WITHIN FOUR MONTHS” Ukraine produces drones and builds domestic artillery systems. The country plans to allocate 26% of its budget to defense this year. However, some senior Ukrainian officials warn that the army will face challenges if American support is not reinstated. Experts believe that without sufficient ammunition and equipment to make up for their losses, the Ukrainian forces will start collapsing within a four-month period.

WHY CAN’T EUROPE FILL THE VOID? Throughout the three-year war, $136 billion of military aid provided to Ukraine came from allies, nearly half originating from the US. As production escalated in Ukraine and Europe, the American share gradually declined. Currently, only about 20% of the military equipment supplied to Ukraine is from the US, but this 20% comprises the deadliest and most critical shipments.

IS UKRAINE DOOMED? Military analysts predict that without US military aid, Kiev may be forced to accept an unfavorable ceasefire agreement with Russia. This could entail relinquishing a fifth of their territory and abandoning aspirations to join NATO.