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Guidelines for the Next President Regarding Tariffs

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If you have been following recent economic news, you are aware that tariffs ultimately lead to increased prices for consumers. This applies whether you are shopping at mainstream retailers like Target, Aldi, or Neiman Marcus or if you are a U.S. manufacturer sourcing goods from overseas. Despite this, the next president is likely to continue with tariffs, either by endorsing the current ones or implementing new ones.

Hence, Mr. or Madam President, if you are determined to proceed with tariffs, here are three essential considerations to maximize their effectiveness:

Firstly, clearly define your objectives. When there is a specific, attainable goal that you seek to achieve from another country, the threat of high tariffs can be a successful bargaining chip. For instance, the utilization of Section 232 tariffs on imported autos by former President Donald Trump played a role in the U.S. reestablishing agricultural market access with Japan after exiting the Trans-Pacific trade agreement. On the other hand, the Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports employed by both the Trump and Biden administrations have not been as impactful in achieving their intended outcomes.

Secondly, if you are using tariffs to protect domestic industries from foreign competition, it is crucial to ensure that these industries have strategies in place to compete in the global marketplace. Tariffs are not a permanent solution, as consumers will eventually seek out the most cost-effective options, leading to the return of imports.

Lastly, collaborating with key trading partners is vital for the success of tariff initiatives. In the interconnected global economy, the involvement of major players is essential for tariffs to have a meaningful impact. Recent examples include joint efforts by the U.S., Canada, and the European Union to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in response to state-driven overproduction.

While there is a belief that tariffs can address the trade deficit, the deficit is largely influenced by domestic savings rates and investment needs. Instead of relying solely on tariffs, consider strategies to incentivize savings among American households and firms or collaborate with Congress to reduce federal spending.

In conclusion, every effort should be made to clearly define objectives when utilizing tariffs and to ensure that they yield tangible benefits in return.

Christine McDaniel, a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, shares these insights for consideration by the 47th president of the United States.

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