Reports suggest that Russia is providing gas and oil supplies to Syria to maintain its military presence in the country while keeping Bashar al-Assad in power. According to The Moscow Times, sources indicated that Russia began supplying gas and oil to Syria in order to sustain its military presence in the country following the collapse of Assad’s regime in December 2024. The aim is to gain the loyalty of the new government led by Ahmed Shaara and keep the Assad issue off the table. Three sources mentioned in the report highlighted the sensitivity of the issue and revealed that Russia initiated gas and oil supplies to continue its military presence in Syria in February. They shared that these shipments were launched on Putin’s orders and efforts were made to keep them secret. A source from Russia’s oil and gas sector stated, “Support to the Syrian people, who we see as our friends, continues in silence; we were instructed to move forward quietly.”

One diplomat noted that the sudden change in the Syrian government left Russia without allies on the ground when Assad fled and the opposition took over. This created significant problems for Russia’s policies in Syria and the Middle East. Another diplomat expressed that Russia granting asylum to Assad and his family deteriorated Moscow’s relations with the new Syrian government and triggered negative feelings among the Syrian people. They stated that despite being a blow to their friendship, there was no other option. A Russian diplomat close to the Kremlin revealed that even though the issue was raised in negotiations, Moscow clearly stated that it would not hand over Assad to the Syrian government, emphasizing their steadfast approach.

An analyst affiliated with the Kremlin commented that Russia’s future influence in the region largely depends on its relations with Turkey, the United States, and Israel. There is dissatisfaction in Moscow regarding Israel’s complete occupation of the Golan Heights and its attacks on military bases and defense infrastructure in Syria. The expert acknowledged past mistakes and emphasized the need to rebuild relations moving forward. The Valdai Club experts suggested that Russia needs to demonstrate its consistency in supporting the Syrian state and sovereignty, fighting terrorism, rejecting new colonialism, and seeking a legal solution to the conflict in order to regain its influence in Syria.

Russia has a military presence at the Hmeimim Air Base in Jableh and the naval base in Tartus in Latakia, Syria. Following the change in Syrian leadership, the fate of these bases had been a subject of speculation, but The Moscow Times noted that despite initial pessimism, Russian forces continued to maintain control over the two bases. A government official attributed the commencement of supplies in Syria to a key topic of discussion between Putin and Shaara during a phone call.

As Iran ceased its oil supplies, a fuel crisis erupted in Syria in December 2024. Reports indicated that Russia swiftly acted to exploit the economic instability in Syria, with numerous fuel tankers leaving Russia and arriving in Syria over the past month. The vessel “Sakina” under the flag of Barbados reportedly delivered around 100,000 tons of oil at a Syrian port on March 25. Prior to this, another Barbados-flagged vessel, Aquatica, had reached the port of Baniyas. These vessels, both subject to Western sanctions, loaded 100 tons of oil each in the Murmansk region of Russia in February and transported the oil to Syria. The report suggested that other ships and shipments followed suit.