Japanese scientists are foreseeing a deadly earthquake along the country’s Pacific coast within a 30-year period. It is estimated that this earthquake could result in massive tsunamis, up to 300,000 casualties, and the destruction of 2.35 million buildings. Last year, for the first time, a warning was issued for a mega-earthquake following a 7.1 magnitude quake that hit Japan.

The Japanese government urgently warned about the potential extensive damage that the impending major earthquake could cause. Experts believe there is an 80% chance of a magnitude 9 earthquake occurring at the Nankai Trough off Japan’s Pacific coast in the next 30 years. According to the government’s latest estimates, this catastrophe could lead to the deaths of up to 300,000 people in the worst case scenario. These figures include 215,000 deaths caused by tsunami waves exceeding 30 meters in certain areas.

OCCURRING EVERY 100 TO 200 YEARS The Nankai Trough, formed by the border of two tectonic plates, is a deep ocean trench where a major earthquake strikes every 100 to 200 years. The report predicts that in the deadliest scenario, 2.35 million buildings will collapse due to sinking, flooding, and fires. The destruction is expected to cause £1.44 trillion in damages and lead to the evacuation of around 12.3 million people. This forecast means that at least 10% of Japan’s population will be displaced within a week after the earthquake.

Japan is especially vulnerable to deadly earthquakes due to its location above the extensive seismic activity zone known as the Pacific Ring of Fire. This region is responsible for about 81% of the world’s major earthquakes due to the convergence of multiple tectonic plates.

THE MOST DANGEROUS EARTHQUAKE ZONE One of the most dangerous areas is the Nankai Trough, where the Philippine Sea Plate is being subducted beneath the Eurasian Plate. This 900-kilometer trench has the potential to generate extremely powerful and deadly tremors known as mega-earthquakes.

FIRST ALERT ISSUED IN YEARS Last year, following a 7.1 magnitude earthquake that struck southwestern Japan, the Japanese government issued the first alert for a Nankai Trough mega-earthquake. While the risk of a major earthquake in the near future is increasing, the Japan Cabinet Office updated its impact forecasts for the first time since 2013.