Say goodbye to Smoot and Hawley. President Trump has declared himself America’s top protectionist and is beginning a global trade war to demonstrate it.

This Wednesday, Trump enforced a minimum 10 percent tariff on all imports, as well as additional “reciprocal” tariffs on 60 other countries daring to sell goods Americans want to buy. He labeled it “Liberation Day” as a celebration of freeing Americans from the so-called oppressive burden of trading with others.

Deeply rooted in nostalgia for America’s industrial peak, Trump envisions himself restructuring the global economy unilaterally. Despite the executive orders he signs, history cannot be reversed, and basic economics cannot be repealed.

His across-the-board tariffs are a significant tax increase on U.S. consumers, affecting a wide range of goods from European medicines, Mexican produce, Vietnamese footwear, German automobiles, Japanese and Korean steel, Canadian aluminum, and electricity.

Simultaneously, the $3 trillion export sector, including items such as satellites, medical devices, soybeans, wine, movies, and telemedicine, is expected to shrink as other countries will raise their tariffs in retaliation.

If Trump persists and restricts trade with high tariffs, it will result in soaring prices, economic growth slowdown, reduced wealth for Americans, and lead to harmful global trade wars with allies and friends.

In the past, a wave of protectionism in the United States and Europe increased and prolonged the economic crisis of the 1920s and 1930s, destabilizing liberal democracies and eventually leading to dictatorship and a catastrophic world war. Are we willing to risk a relapse into economic isolationism now?

Trump provides three illogical justifications. Firstly, he echoes the leftist argument that trade agreements have caused the decline of U.S. manufacturing jobs. By increasing imported goods’ prices, a new industrial boom is expected to emerge domestically.

However, Americans are not convinced by Trump’s economic policies. Consumer confidence has dropped to a 12-year low, leading families to cut back spending in anticipation of rising costs of living.

Investors are also uneasy, with the stock market losing over $3 trillion since Trump’s inauguration, equivalent to 10% of the U.S.’s $30 trillion GDP.

A recent YouGov poll showed that 61 percent of voters believe tariffs negatively impact average working people, while only 14 percent think they will be beneficial.

Trump argues that tariffs will drive growth, but in reality, they aim to shield companies from foreign competition. While selective and temporary tariffs can provide struggling firms a reprieve to adapt to market shifts, a broader policy of high tariffs leads to economic scarcity and lack of progress over time.

Secondly, Trump views trade deficits as evidence that other countries are exploiting the U.S.

“For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friends and foes,” he claimed.

However, this narrative of paranoia shows Trump’s misunderstanding of trade dynamics. Trade is usually mutually beneficial due to comparative advantage, even with countries like North Korea. Additionally, Trump fails to understand that America’s low savings rate and borrowing amplify trade deficits.

Lastly, Trump portrays tariffs as a new revenue source for the federal government. While White House aide Peter Navarro forecasts $600 billion annual revenue from tariffs, the U.S. spends almost $7 trillion yearly. Furthermore, if tariffs function as intended, the generated revenue will decline as consumers steer clear of expensive imports.

Trump’s tariffs are an ineffective treatment for a genuine socio-economic issue: the disappearance of lucrative manufacturing jobs since the 1970s has significantly impacted working families. This income inequality leads to downward mobility, eroded social status for non-college workers, and drives them towards right-wing populism, grappling with diminished economic prospects, family instability, and drug addiction.

Although Trump views tariffs as reparations for American workers, the real cause is not trade, globalization, or “neoliberalism.” Rather, it’s the evolution of a post-industrial economy shaped by technological advancements, rising education levels, and a shift towards service-oriented sectors.

Manufacturing jobs have dwindled across advanced nations, even in manufacturing giants like Germany and Japan. However, owing to tech-driven productivity gains, U.S. manufacturing output has surged over 60% since 1999 despite a 25% shrinkage in the factory workforce.

Similar to other high-income nations, the U.S. has transformed into a service-centric economy, with services constituting 80% of non-farm employment. Although new factories may arise, job creation is expected to be modest due to automation.

Since Trump’s initial tariff implementation, manufacturing employment has stagnated, rising by only 30,000 since 2018, compared to 400,000 during the second Obama term. Even with over half a million manufacturing jobs unfilled in the last five years, blue-collar workers exhibit reluctance towards manufacturing careers.

A 2023 YouGov poll by the Progressive Policy Institute shows non-college workers prefer job opportunities in the communications and digital sector over manufacturing. Despite this, Trump is jeopardizing the U.S. economy and fracturing relationships with trading partners to revert five decades of post-industrial progress, ceding serious consequences for working Americans.

Will Marshall, the Progressive Policy Institute’s founder and president.