As the US elections approach, the figures in the polls are beginning to clarify.

According to Reuters, Democratic US Vice President Kamala Harris has garnered a “marginal” lead of 46% to 43%.

In a new survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, Republican former President Donald Trump has “a grumpy voter base” who believe “the country is on the wrong track.” The United States is gearing up for the elections on November 5th.
In the six-day survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, which ended yesterday, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris came out ahead with 46% to 43% of the votes.
Harris’s lead was very close to her advantage of 45% to 42% over Trump in the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted a week ago, strengthening the view that the race is “extremely tight” two weeks before the elections. Both surveys show Harris leading within the margin of error, but the latest survey, using unrounded figures, puts Harris only 2 percentage points ahead.
The new survey showed that voters have a gloomy view on the state of the economy and immigration and generally support Trump’s approach on these issues.
Approximately 70% of registered voters surveyed stated that the cost of living is on the wrong path, 60% said the economy is moving in the wrong direction, and 65% expressed the same sentiment regarding immigration policy. Voters also pointed out that threats to democracy, along with the economy and immigration, are the country’s most important issues.
When asked which candidate has a better approach on these issues, Trump led with 46% to 38% on the economy, and 48% to 35% on immigration.
When participants were asked what the next president should focus on in their first 100 days in office, immigration emerged as the top concern. 35% of the participants chose immigration, 11% income inequality, and 10% health and tax issues.
However, Trump performed poorly when asked which candidate would better tackle political extremism and threats to democracy, with Harris leading by 42% to 35%.
Harris also leads in abortion and healthcare policies. Although Harris’s advantage over Trump continues until November 5th, it may not be enough to win the election.
National polls, including Reuters/Ipsos surveys, provide important signals about voters’ opinions, but the results of the Electoral College will determine the winner on a state-by-state basis, with seven “battleground” states likely to be decisive.
In the 2016 elections, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton, winning in the Electoral College despite losing the national popular vote by 2 points.
Polls show that Harris and Trump are neck and neck in these battleground states. Surveys indicate that voters, especially Democrats, may be more excited for this year’s elections than they were for the November 2020 presidential elections, in which Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump.
Approximately 79% of registered voters participating in the survey stated that they are “completely certain” they will cast their votes in the presidential elections, including 87% of Democrats and 84% of Republicans.
In the survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos between October 23-27, 2020, 74% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans had stated that they were certain they would vote.
The margin of error for the new survey is 2%. Harris entered the race in July after ending her reelection efforts in June, following a poor debate performance against Trump.
At that time, Trump was perceived to be ahead, partly due to a strong image in the economy following several years of high inflation.
Given the closeness of the match, efforts to ensure that supporters actually vote will likely play a key role in determining the winner.
According to estimates by the US Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center, only two-thirds of American adults voted in the November 2020 elections, the highest turnout rate in over a century.