Recent polls in the USA indicate that Republican candidate Donald Trump is slightly ahead of his Democratic rival Kamala Harris in the 7 critical states crucial for the presidential race.

As the countdown to the 60th presidential election in the USA on November 5 continues, the competition between Harris and Trump, which is neck and neck, is intensifying. According to the average of nationwide polls published on the news platform “Real Clear Politics (RCP),” Harris has reached 49.2% support. Therefore, Harris seems to be ahead of Trump, who gathered 47.5% support in the same polls.

TRUMP LEADS SLIGHTLY IN CRITICAL STATES Harris may seem slightly ahead in nationwide polls, but in the American presidential election system, where the candidate who reaches the most delegates becomes the president, the results in the “swing states” are more critical. According to the average of polls in 7 swing states crucial due to the “Electoral College” system, Trump is seen slightly ahead of Harris by 0.7 points. Trump continues his race ahead of Harris by 0.3 in Pennsylvania, 0.7 in Georgia, 1.1 in Arizona, 0.5 in Nevada, 1 in Michigan, and 1.3 in North Carolina based on the polls in October. Meanwhile, in the same polls, Harris seems to lead by 0.3 in Wisconsin. However, in Michigan, where Harris has been leading so far, she seems to have fallen behind Trump in the last week.

HARRIS LEADS NATIONWIDE POLLS On the other hand, according to the average of 11 current polls including Reuters, CBS News, Pew, Harvard, and NBC News among others, Harris appears to have 49.2% support, while Trump has 47.5%. In Reuters’ research, Harris has 47%, and Trump has 44% support while in Harvard’s poll, Harris has 51%, and Trump has 49%. It is noted that Harris, who had nearly the same support as Trump in polls conducted in July, has somewhat increased her support among women and Latino voters during this period.

TRUMP CLAIMS PROJECTION OF POSSIBLE DELEGATE COUNTS Considering the election system where a total of 535 delegates will be distributed, and the candidate reaching 270 delegates becomes the president, all eyes will essentially be on the critical states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. According to the current polls in these states, if the delegate numbers are reflected, Trump is slightly advantageous in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, while Harris is slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. It is predicted that if Trump wins in 5 of these 7 swing states, he could reach 302 delegates, while Harris could end up with 236 delegates.

BETTING FIRMS SEE TRUMP CLOSER TO WINNING THE ELECTION RCP, which includes predictions from seven different betting firms like Polymarket, Smarket, Points Bet, Bwin, Bovada, Betsson, and Betfair about the chances of candidates winning, shows that the average of these predictions favors Trump winning the presidential race. RCP shares that the predictions estimate Trump’s likelihood of winning at 56.3%, while Harris is at 42.6%. All these betting firms see Trump’s chances of winning as 55% or more.

MUSLIM VOTERS CRITICIZE US GOVERNMENT’S GAZA POLICY Nationwide polls indicate that inflation, economic issues, abortion debates, and border security are the main topics on voters’ minds. However, especially the US’s Gaza policy is seen as a significant topic for Americans. Michigan, where American Muslims and Arabs are most concentrated with 15 delegates, stands out as an important state where this foreign policy issue will have an impact. In the primary elections held in February, 13% of votes were “uncommitted” throughout the state due to Biden’s strong criticisms of the Gaza policy. These opposing Democrats, as prominent voters, expressed that they might not vote for the Democratic government criticized for its unconditional support to Israel. However, they also noted that they did not see Trump as an alternative.