Donald Trump’s consistent belief in being tough on foreign countries that send manufactured goods our way is reflected in his use of tariffs to protect domestic manufacturing. He has already imposed significant tariffs and plans to increase them if reelected. Tariffs have been a major political issue in the United States for over a century, providing revenue for the government until the 19th century and remaining essential until the introduction of income tax in 1913.

If Trump implements 20 percent tariffs on certain goods, it would be a significant return to the high tariffs of the past. Tariffs, essentially indirect sales taxes, increase prices on most goods. This not only impacts foreign goods but also allows domestic manufacturers to raise prices slightly due to the market dynamics. However, these taxes are paid disproportionately by the wealthy, as they spend a smaller percentage of their income on goods.

The proposed tax cuts and tariff increases by Trump would shift the burden of taxes from the wealthy to the general population. These policies have historically been regionally divisive, affecting farmers negatively while some manufacturers may benefit. Industries may face higher costs and adjustments, especially those integrated with international parts and materials.

Tariffs would also create opportunities for lobbying and exemptions, benefiting lobbyists and foreign countries. The system would require constant defense and maintenance of side deals, reminiscent of historical tariff practices. This approach is likely to lead to political gains for certain entities, resonating with the concept of economic nationalism and deviating from the tradition of free trade that the U.S. has championed.

Jeremy D. Mayer, an associate professor at George Mason University, explores the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs in the broader economic and historical context.