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The Conflicting Message from the White House Regarding Tariffs

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In Washington, the laws of economics are often disregarded, frustratingly inconvenient for many lawmakers. They manipulate, ignore, or warp these fundamental economic principles to produce desired outcomes.

Democrats often argue that increasing taxes automatically leads to more revenue for the government. They suggest that individuals would continue purchasing goods even at higher prices due to tax increases. However, the concept of demand elasticity in economics shows that people don’t behave in this manner.

For instance, the Congressional Budget Office, despite having economists, significantly underestimated the number of people who would enroll in Medicaid under ObamaCare. This misconception highlights people’s tendency to favor free services.

Republicans are no different from their liberal counterparts when it comes to denying fundamental economic truths. Last week, Peter Navarro, the White House Senior Counsellor for Trade and Manufacturing, projected that the proposed Trump Tariffs would generate $6 trillion over the next decade, averaging $600 billion per year.

Based on the imported goods’ total value, an average tariff rate of around 18 percent would be required to meet this revenue target. This rate seems realistic considering the proposed tariff ranges from 10 to 25 percent. However, economic principles, including consumer substitution behavior, must also be considered.

The idea behind these tariffs is to encourage using American-made products instead of foreign goods. While this is supported to revive American manufacturing, expecting $600 billion in revenue annually is impractical. For that projection to be true, consumers must continue buying foreign products despite the increased prices due to tariffs.

Ultimately, one cannot expect tariffs to boost American jobs and raise significant revenue simultaneously. Therefore, the tariffs might hinder their main purpose if people choose to purchase domestic products. The conflicting objectives highlight the inconsistency in the White House’s tariff policy.

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