Debates continue regarding whether the Bitcoin (BTC) bull market has come to an end, with CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stating that on-chain data indicates Bitcoin has entered a downtrend.

According to Ju, the increasing interest in Bitcoin ETFs has altered traditional on-chain liquidity signals, pointing to the start of a new phase in market dynamics.

HOW DO ETFs AFFECT ON-CHAIN DATA? The CryptoQuant CEO emphasized that the clear visibility of traditional retail investor activity in on-chain transactions is limited because many investors participate in the crypto market through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rather than direct transactions. Ju noted that around 80% of Bitcoin ETF flows come from retail investors, a trend observed by Binance analysts towards the end of 2024. The preference for Bitcoin ETFs by retail investors leads to new liquidity entering the market not being fully reflected in on-chain data. While the low levels of indicators like realized market value do not necessarily indicate a decrease in demand for Bitcoin, it does suggest a cautious approach towards evaluating market movements using traditional on-chain metrics.

HAS BITCOIN ENTERED A BEAR MARKET? Ki Young Ju recently stated in a post that all on-chain liquidity signals indicating Bitcoin’s entrance into a bear market are present. According to him, Bitcoin may undergo an extended market correction phase over the next 6 to 12 months. Ju pointed out that fundamental indicators like market value-to-realized value (MVRV), spent output profit ratio (SOPR), and net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) are on a downward trend. These metrics support the view that investors are taking profits and the market is entering a correction period. Bitcoin’s price fell by 0.35% in the last 24 hours, dropping from $84,500 to $83,000. This decline aligns with short-term investors profiting in recent times. Increased selling pressure from institutional investors and derivatives markets negatively affects Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

ANALYSTS ASSESSING BITCOIN’S FUTURE Financial analyst Peter Schiff highlighted Bitcoin’s high correlation with the NASDAQ and how a possible downturn in traditional markets could negatively impact Bitcoin’s price. Schiff predicts that if the market continues to decline, Bitcoin could drop as much as 24% to $65,000. In a worse scenario, Schiff claims that if the market correction deepens, Bitcoin might fall to $20,000. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone noted that Bitcoin and the overall crypto market are overheated, with gold prices rising during this period. McGlone forecasts that if economic conditions worsen, Bitcoin could drop to as low as $10,000. However, some market experts argue that with the increase in Bitcoin ETF purchases, the market could gain liquidity and prices could stabilize.

MINERS AND LIQUIDITY ISSUE Another significant indicator suggesting the end of the Bitcoin bull cycle is miner activity. Recent data reveals that Bitcoin miners selling BTC worth a total of $27 million caused a significant cash outflow in the market. This indicates that miners are selling to cover costs, creating additional selling pressure on the market. Additionally, the Bitcoin halving scheduled for 2026 could trigger a new wave of volatility in the market. While previous halvings generally had a positive impact on price due to decreased Bitcoin supply, they also caused short-term volatility to rise. Some view this process as a long-term investment opportunity, while some analysts believe that increasing mining costs will continue to exert pressure on the market.

WHAT WILL BE BITCOIN’S NEXT MOVE? If current market trends persist, it seems unlikely that Bitcoin will reach new highs in the coming months. With the crypto market increasingly leaning towards ETFs, traditional on-chain indicators may not fully reflect the market’s dynamics. Prominent analysts emphasize the critical role global macroeconomic conditions will play in determining Bitcoin’s future. If demand for ETFs continues, Bitcoin’s long-term potential could be maintained. However, during a period where on-chain metrics do not fully reflect investor interest, investors should be prepared for a possible long-term market correction.